While makeup remains the largest category in the U.S. prestige market, its sales grew 5% in the first half of 2024, slower than the other categories tracked in a recent Circana reporta. At the same time, a September 2024 Spate reportb notes that, between August 2021 and May 2024, makeup Google searches and TikTok content have dropped by 7.7%. Yet, while overall growth is slow, several key segments are expanding—notably lip and cheek products, setting sprays, and other select categories. At the same time, emerging trends, including hybrid/multifunctional products, new gestures enabled by packaging, clean formulations and more are opening new avenues for growth. Here’s our full breakdown, encompassing market dynamics, recent innovations from turnkey and contract manufacturers, and packaging experts. Let’s get started.
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While makeup remains the largest category in the U.S. prestige market, its sales grew 5% in the first half of 2024, slower than the other categories tracked in a recent Circana reporta. At the same time, a September 2024 Spate reportb notes that, between August 2021 and May 2024, makeup Google searches and TikTok content have dropped by 7.7%. Yet, while overall growth is slow, several key segments are expanding—notably lip and cheek products, setting sprays, and other select categories. At the same time, emerging trends, including hybrid/multifunctional products, new gestures enabled by packaging, clean formulations and more are opening new avenues for growth. Here’s our full breakdown, encompassing market dynamics, recent innovations from turnkey and contract manufacturers, and packaging experts. Let’s get started.
1. The Lip Boom Cannot Be Stopped
U.S. prestige lip segment sales grew in the double-digits in the first half of 2024, led by balms and oils, per Circana. Furthermore, lip gloss and liner were top sales gainers in the mass sector. This lip makeup boom is not a new phenomenon, carrying over from 2023.
In fact, a September 2024 Spate report shows that, between August 2021 and May 2024, top-growing products by Google search volume and TikTok content included lip stains, liners and tints.
Per Spate, peel-off lip stains have racked up 13.2K monthly searches as of October 2024, representing a 218.2% year-over-year gain. These products also nab 1.7 million average weekly views on TikTok.
According to Spate, #peelofflipliner has tallied 489.3K average weekly views as of October 2024, while the related hashtag #longlastingmakeup has posted 306.9K average weekly views.
The peel-off lip stain has been seen in collaborations such as Wonderskin x Chipotle, as well as viral hits from Sacheau Beauty.
Despite all of this robust growth, not everything is expanding in the lip space. Spate has flagged key decliners, including lipstick, gloss and plumping products.
Disrupting Lip Makeup: New Formulas, Gestures & Packaging
Cosmopak’s Turnkey Lip Jello is a balm designed for convenient, effective lip care.Cosmopak
For instance, Croda Beauty recently displayed its Pomegranate Glossy Lip Oil at MakeUp in New York. Inspired by the “slugging” skin care trend, the formulation creates an occlusive layer on the skin, per Croda, enhancing moisturization and leading to plumper skin.
Elsewhere, Cosmopak’s Turnkey Lip Jello is a balm designed for convenient, effective lip care. The formulation is compliant with retailer clean requirements and features plumping and moisturizing shea butter and nourishing argan, macadamia and babassu oil, as well as squalane for soft, healthy lips.
Meanwhile, manufacturer MPlus Cosmetics’ Vibrant Flame stylo lipstick comprises an ultra-creamy, Credo- and Sephora-compliant formula that offers a pop of color.
Manufacturer MPlus Cosmetics’ Vibrant Flame stylo lipstick comprises an ultra-creamy, Credo- and Sephora-compliant formula that offers a pop of color. The lipstick is pictured here alongside other formulations that comprise MPlus' Chakra Glow collection.MPlus
Vibrant Flame also comprises Portulaca pilosa extract and palmitoyl tripeptide-38 to plump the lips and boost volume, hydration and softness, according to MPlus.
MPlus’ Play Intense lipstick, meanwhile, imparts a shiny-velvet finish and medium-high coverage via the creation of a wraparound film on the lips. The formulation comprises volume-boosting tocopheryl acetate, a hyaluronic acid-stimulating tripeptide complex and a ceramide complex to form a restorative barrier on the lips. The Play Intense lipstick is Sephora Clean and Credo-compliant.
MPlus’ Pop & Play Soft lip crayon offers a velvety matte finish and keeps lips hydrated all day. The crayons are pictured here, along with other formulations from the contract manufacturers' Pop & Play collection.MPlus
ICONS|ICS’s flushfit Chubby Bottle features a soft and plump dome-shaped brush for lip, eye or liquid blush formulations.ICONS|ICS
ICONS|ICS’s Lip Wand Packaging with Hybrid Applicator, meanwhile, comprises a hybrid TPEE and stainless-steel applicator.ICONS|ICS
ICONS|ICS’s Lip Wand Packaging with Hybrid Applicator, meanwhile, comprises a hybrid TPEE and stainless-steel applicator. Designed for lip oils, tints, glosses or hybrid formulations, the pack is available in a 2.5 ml fill size.
ICONS|ICS’ Wand Packaging with Paddle Tip Applicator, on the other hand, is designed for lip, face and eye formulations and includes a PET bottle, PCTG cap and flexible PBT spatula applicator with a slanted scoop design on two sides.ICONS|ICS
The company’s Wand Packaging with Paddle Tip Applicator, on the other hand, is designed for lip, face and eye formulations and includes a PET bottle, PCTG cap and flexible PBT spatula applicator with a slanted scoop design on two sides. The pack is available in a 2.5 ml fill size and with a variety of standard doe foot applicators.
Quadpack, meanwhile, offers a range of new applicators that can be used for lip makeup and skin care.
“The classic flocked applicators are evolving,” says Quadpack category specialist Mateia Crippa. "Among our collection of applicators, brands will discover new designs that add value to the formula and boost the consumer experience. We have original shapes inspired by nature. We also have metal designs that offer a cold-touch effect. They all add a touch of creativity to formula application.”
Quadpack’s Skin-Up bottle, meanwhile, features a leaf-shaped applicator (Centered) for high-and low-viscosity lip formulations.Quadpack
The new Quadpack offerings comprise a mix-and-match system for dip-in solutions, including bottle and applicator options. The flocked applicators matched with Gala Lip Gloss, for instance, include the Quadzone rigid applicator with precise tip designed for defined lip lines, while the Crush applicator is ideal for lip gloss, offering a spoon shape with a double-sided reservoir for creating a heavy coat. The concave Ace applicator is designed for precision and flexibility, depositing a veil of opaque color, while the Dicot is fashioned for low-viscosity lip gloss and lip oils, allowing product to be squeezed out from the reservoir without spilling. The Gala Lip Gloss bottle is also compatible the Sorbet Kiss applicator for the lips and cheeks, featuring a high-volume reservoir that transfers low-viscosity formulas without dripping, per Quadpack.
Quadpack’s Skin-Up bottle, meanwhile, features a leaf-shaped applicator (Centered) for high-and low-viscosity lip formulations, as well as the 360 facial applicator with a flexible, elliptical neck and curved edge, and Sorbet Touch for the lips and face, offering drip-free loading for low-viscosity foundations and blushes (see Cheeks: Blushes & Stains Rule). The Kimono applicator option, on the other hand, is designed for foundation or concealer, featuring a rounded tip for blending.
On the sustainability front, Axilone and Verescence have co-developed turnkey packaging combining glass and aluminum for liquid makeup formulas, including lipsticks, lip oils and glosses, as well as liquid eyeshadows or blushes. Featuring a capacity of 7.5 ml, the packaging comprises a Verescence lightweight glass Kali bottle incorporating 20% PCR and an Axilone Pure Metal cap composed of aluminum.
Axilone and Verescence have co-developed Kali turnkey packaging combining glass and aluminum for liquid makeup formulas, including lipsticks, lip oils and glosses, as well as liquid eyeshadows or blushes.Axilone x Veresence
“The Kali bottle and its Pure Metal cap were designed for brands looking to project a high-end and eco-responsible image for their makeup products,” says Bérangère Raguenet, marketing and communication director at Verescence. “The sensory experience provided by glass and aluminum is unparalleled. The cold touch and brilliance of these two materials enhance the perceived quality of the product among consumers.”
“As a packaging solutions provider, it is our role to offer solutions that meet market trends and support brands in optimizing the life cycle of their packaging,” says Lucie Ray-Lalanne, marketing and communication director at Axilone. “Offering a combined glass/aluminum option is highly relevant for a more sustainable luxury. We are currently working to strengthen the eco-designed dimension of this recyclable full-aluminum concept, by integrating PCR recycled aluminum.”
APC Packaging is bringing monomaterial designs to the lip sector via its new color cosmetic collection, comprising either 100% PET or PP materials.APC Packaging
The collection includes a fully PET 3.5 g Lip Stick and 100% PP 1.8 g Lip Stick, as well as a 100% PET 5.2 ml Lip Balm. The company’s collection also includes a 100% PP 5 g Stick (bottom fill), 100% PP 1.3 g Twist Pen and 100% PP 0.06 g Twist Pen.
2. Cheeks: Blushes & Stains Rule
Blushes and other cheek products have been inescapable, led by launches by buzzy brands.
Over the last three years, per Spate, top growing makeup categories on Google search and TikTok included blush, including jelly and liquid blushes; pink blush; and cheek stains.
Spate notes, “Consumers are particularly focused on product formats and suitability for various skin types and undertones, especially for mature skin.”
Future innovation in blushes could likely benefit from hybrid concepts. For instance, during MakeUp in New York in September 2024, Croda Beauty introduced a range of concept formulas, including the Glow for It Dewy Bouncy Blush that delivers a bright pink color while illuminating and revitalizing the skin for an energized look.
3. Interest in Multifunctional Hybrids Remains Strong
![Givaudan Active Beauty's new [N.A.S.] Vibrant Collection comprises a series of 100% natural origin active extracts that provide both performance and skin benefits, in addition to color stability and longevity.](https://img.wellspa360.com/files/base/allured/all/image/2024/10/Givaudan_Active_Beauty__N.A.S._____Vibrant_Collection.67058410afdf1.png?auto=format%2Ccompress&dpr=2&fit=max&q=70&w=700)
Givaudan Active Beauty's new [N.A.S.] Vibrant Collection comprises a series of 100% natural origin active extracts that provide both performance and skin benefits, in addition to color stability and longevity.Givaudan
At the same time, Circana points out that, in 2023, “over half of makeup users were looking for products that function as both makeup and skin care, an increase of 6% versus prior year.”
A September 2024 Circana report points out that “more than 50% of U.S. consumers seek products that combine makeup and skin care in one, with just over 60% of Gen Z and millennials aligning with this sentiment.”
Ingredient firms are ramping up innovation to capture consumers' interest in hybrids.
Notably, Givaudan Active Beauty's new [N.A.S.] Vibrant Collection comprises a series of 100% natural origin active extracts that provide both performance and skin benefits, in addition to color stability and longevity.
“There is a growing need for ingredients specifically designed for hybrid make-up formulas—ingredients that can easily be incorporated into makeup,” says Fabrice Lefevre, innovation and marketing director. “By focusing efforts into the sourcing and supply chain of natural ingredients, Givaudan Active Beauty has identified four natural raw materials known for their strong antioxidant potential that also offer proven benefits for the skin while sustaining makeup performance.”
Crafted through green fractionation, the [N.A.S.] Vibrant Collection comprises five natural extracts in powder form (INCIs: not provided) that are highly concentrated in bioactive compounds, offering strong antioxidant properties and additional skin benefits, per the company. These include:
- [N.A.S.] Curcuma 7409 (INCI: Curcuma longa (turmeric) root extract (and) kaolin), a soothing rhizome extract
- [N.A.S.] Gardenia 2168 (INCI: hydrolyzed gardenia Florida extract (and) maltodextrin (and) kaolin), an anti-aging fruit extract
- [N.A.S.] Spirulina 2183 (INCI: Spirulina platensis extract (and) hydrolyzed corn starch (and) kaolin), a brightening algae extract
- [N.A.S.] Radish 1805 (INCI: Raphanus sativus (radish) root extract (and) citric acid (and) montmorillonite (and) maltodextrin), a skin protection extract
- [N.A.S.] Radish 2364 (INCI: Raphanus sativus (radish) root extract (and) citric acid (and) montmorillonite (and) maltodextrin), an anti-glycation extract
Givaudan’s processing is said to ensure the stability of the composition of the extracts and bioactive compounds, preserving their organoleptic properties and appearance. The oil-dispersible powders thus deliver their biological efficacy in makeup without compromising color performance, intensity or stability, per the company.
Hybrid formulations are also reshaping the manufacture of beauty tools.
Anisa's Glider Collection revival includes a brush head for the application of hybrid and liquid formulas.Anisa International
The design is optimal for hybrid formulas across liquids, creams and sticks, as well as moisturizers, primers and sculpting products.
Variants in the collection include the All-Over Complexion, Foundation, Detail Complexion, Eye, Detail Eye and Precision Eye & Lip.
4. Eyes: Unique, Convenient Formats Lead
It’s undeniable that the eye makeup category has been challenged, with Spate noting declining interest over the last three years in eyelid, eyebrow, eyelash, mascara, eyeliner and eyeshadow products.
Yet some formats are on the rise in popularity, including stick foundations and stick eye shadows.
Bringing Newness to Eye Makeup: Formulas & Packaging
To breathe new life into the eye makeup sector, a range of suppliers have launched innovations in packaging and formulations.
Cosmopak has reintroduced a selection of mascaras from its 2021 Let's Play collection. The eight clean mascaras are designed to properly match formulas, wands (flexible molded and wired brushes) and wipers for desired effects, including lengthening, curling, defining and volumizing.Cosmopak
Elsewhere, MPlus Cosmetics recently developed the Elevation Mascara, which features a mix of film formers and fixatives to offer strong adhesion and rub-off resistance. Volume and definition can be achieved with a blend of high- and low-melting-point waxes. Key ingredients include shea butter and panthenol, as well as peptides and hyaluronic acid for stronger, fuller lashes.
MPlus’ creamy Play & Stay mascara offers lengthening and volumizing benefits for stand-out lashes. Featuring a whipped texture, key ingredients include Euphorbia cerifera cera from candelilla shrubs, as well as vegetable oil, Oryza sativa bran oil and wax, Rhus succedanea fruit wax and Helianthus annuus seed wax, as well as moisturizing panthenol, thickening myristoyl pentapeptide-17 and lengthening biotinoyl tripeptide-1.
HCP’s Fantasy Eyes collection of aluminum mascara packs for lash and brow formulations is designed to offer a luxury look and feel.HCP
Brush options for the Fantasy Eyes collection include volumizing Sirene Twist for curl and length, which can be paired with the 13 mm Magnum Chubby Mascara pack. The Quick Booster brush for quick and efficient formula application, meanwhile, can be paired with the 13 mm Magnum Square Mascara.
HCP also offers the definition-boosting La Fatale, paired with the 13 mm Magnum Full Size Mascara, as well as the lengthening Comb & Stretch, also with the 13 mm Magnum Full Size Mascara.
For brows, HCP offers smaller brushes, including the Tailored Brow and Keyhole, which can be paired with either the 13 mm Magnum Mid-Size Mascara or 13 mm Magnum Promo Mascara.
Beyond mascara, MPlus Cosmetics’ Eyelume Duo functions as a highlighter and eyeshadow, tapping into shoppers’ desires for unique, multifunctional formats. The duo’s anhydrous gel formula features a mousse-like, soft texture that glides smoothly and delivers long-lasting wear, per the manufacturer.
The Eyelume Duo offers a hydrating finish and comprises a crosspolymer that delivers a soft-focus and matte effect while smoothing and blurring imperfections and wrinkles. Its silicone-coated pearls reportedly support skin adhesion, product longevity and a soft, talc-like touch. The MPlus formulation also features hydrogenated polycyclopentadien for water resistance and tocopheryl acetate for antioxidant defense against premature aging.
MPlus’ Play Matte Shadow reportedly offers rich, velvety color. The formulation comprises volatile silicone oils that help the product dry quickly, ensuring a smooth application without smudging, as well as a film-forming agent for lasting hold and silicone powder for glide and creaminess.
ICONS|ICS’ family of Bell-shaped Pot with Push-button Applicators is designed for powder or liquid formulations and features a travel-ready 1.5 ml fill size.ICONS|ICS
On the brow front, meanwhile, MPlus’ Color Lift Wax styles and colors brows. The formulation includes moisturizing humectants, water-soluble pigments, and biotinoil tripeptide-1 to strengthen and thicken brow hairs by promoting the proliferation of keratinocytes in the hair follicle bulb.
Its Play Glitz Brow wax, meanwhile, provides a glowy effect. The formulation includes moisturizing humectants that help retain moisture and biotinoil tripeptide-1 to strengthen and thicken brow hairs by promoting the proliferation of keratinocytes in the hair follicle bulb.
Cosmopak's 3 g silky soft eyeliner pencil with built in sharpener reportedly offers a high concentration of pigments to provide color payoff.Cosmopak
Cosmopak's 1.4 g cream eyeshadow slim stick offers a matte finish provides all-day wear.
GPI has set to disrupt the compact format with its Eco-Pure Quad Compact.GPI
5. Facial Makeup: a Story of Disruption
Among top makeup decliners identified by Spate over the last three years were face paint, contouring, highlighters, and foundation and base products, pointing to a shakeup in the face category.
A September 2024 Circana analysis highlights what might be behind some of the shifts: “As more beauty products with skin care benefits and ingredients began hitting the shelves, foundation was moved aside for tinted moisturizer; powder formulations gave way to creams, liquids, sticks and balms; and, perhaps the ultimate mash-up, serum foundations arrived in the aisles.”
Many of these products tapped skin care classics such as “niacinamide, hyaluronic acid and squalane,” per the analysis.
This may explain why, despite challenges in many other product format categories, liquid bronzers have grown well between 2021 and 2024.
As discussed in the hybrid section, products that do more and offer multifunctionality are bound to appeal to today's shoppers.
Facial Makeup Innovation Resources: Packaging & Formulations
Powder formulas are among the formats targeted by contract manufacturers and packaging firms, all of which seek to reinvent the format with convenience and additional functionality.
ICONS|ICS’ EcoRefill Powder Pot (26 ml) is constructed with monomaterial PP (and is thus curbside recyclable) and offers a smooth, mess-free refill experience, per the manufacturer.ICONS|ICS
HCP is also tackling powder formulations with its Ringo Loose Powder Pot, which was designed for loose and mineral/setting powders. Composed of non-styrenic PP and PET materials, the pot features a sifter with a “holed” construction and a half-moon tab that secures the powder puff in place. Users tap the powder into the lid and use the puff or a large brush to apply product. The pot also features the company’s Ringo construction, which allows the inner pod to pop out from the bottom, simplifying the refilling process. Brands can apply a range of deco customization to the Ringo Loose Powder Pot, including transparent and tinted finishes, as well as branding on the top surface of the cap or side of the outer jar.
HCP is tackling powder formulations with its Ringo Loose Powder Pot, which was designed for loose and mineral/setting powders.HCP
MPlus also takes on shoppers’ demands for unique formats with its Play Erase stick concealer, which features Rosa centifolia flower wax for structure and a rose scent, bis-diglyceryl polyacyladipate-2 for a glossy, long-lasting finish, a blend of synthetic and microcrystalline waxes for smooth application, skin-softening emollients, and barium sulfate and mica for a velvety, soft-focus effect. It also offers calming, antioxidant benefits via its Centaurea cyanus callus lysate extract content.
On the foundation front, MPlus’ lightweight Armony Foundation offers a demi-matte finish while absorbing excess sebum. Following the skinification trend, the formula features ascorbyl palmitate and tocopheryl acetate, collagen-boosting Acmella oleracea extract, and brightening Evodia rutaecarpa fruit extract.
MPlus also offers a stick foundation format, featuring high-melting point waxes and silica texturizers, moisturizing jasmine, peony and rose, as well as materials that minimize the appearance of wrinkles, deliver firmness and elasticity, and defend against aggressors such as UV, IR and blue light.
Beyond packaging and concept formulations, Anisa International has launched a range of applicators to deliver optimal product experiences.
Anisa's Feathering Collection features a deep ferrule design that features a larger, denser brush head that delivers light and buildable coverage, enhanced product pickup and more control.Anisa International
The design is ideal for dusting powder and features the following variants: All-Over Complexion, Bronzer, Detail Cheek, Highlight, Eye and Detail Eye.
Anisa's Liquid Touch Collection Expansion, meanwhile, has added new fiber options as well as new variants for eye makeup. The "enhanced" fibers support blending and application of creams, liquids and some powders, per the company.
6. Setting Sprays and Primers in the Spotlight
Among the top growers identified in the Spate report included setting sprays, fixing sprays, setting sprays with UV defense claims, finishing sprays and face primers. The dominance of sprays highlights a desire for flexible and convenient solutions.
Among top brands consumers have searched via Google over the 12 months between early October 2023 and early October 2024 include Milani (particularly its Make It Dewy Setting Spray), L’Oreal Paris (particularly its Infallible 3-Second Setting Spray Mist), E.L.F. (particularly its Power Grip Dewy Setting Spray) and Morphe Cosmetics.
Other standouts include One/Size’s Wicked collaboration glitter setting spray (searches also include queries for Patrick Starrr), and NYX Professional Makeup’s Dewy Setting Spray and Marshmellow Matte Setting Spray.
E.L.F. is also a top player in the SPF setting spray space due to its Suntouchable All Set For Sun SPF 45 SKU, while Coola’s Makeup Setting Spray Sunscreen is also a significant search presence.
7. Don't Fear the Dupes
Some brands are even daring others to dupe them!E.L.F. Beauty
In fact, per a recent report, 64% of Gen Z and 67% of millennials use product dupes to save money.
In fact, one in three beauty shoppers have actually purchased makeup dupes seen on social media.
Across all categories, 59% of millennials are more likely to buy products sponsored by content creators they follow, while 48% of Gen Z shoppers have made purchases based on influencer recommendations.
While brands that create dupes benefit from this trend, so too do those brands and products that get duped, per an NIQ analysis from earlier in 2024.
Some brands are even daring others to dupe them!
Makeup 2025: What’s Next
By finding new innovation opportunities in growth categories and doubling down on hybrid multifunctional formulations that offer enhanced claims (ex: anti-aging, hydrating, etc.), brands can expand market share in beauty’s biggest, but most challenged sector.
FOOTNOTE
awww.circana.com/intelligence/blog/2024/the-skinification-of-everything/
bhttps://www.spate.nyc/subscribe; data from the report "Makeup Trends 2024"
